Investing in Bangladesh

Two days ago I attended a conference on untapped investment opportunities in Bangladesh. It was structured as a panel discussion and less interactive than the PE round table due to the large audience size, but insightful nevertheless. The panel included the MD of a large Bangladeshi corporation, economists from leading investment and development banks, and private equity investors. With the recent growth in Bangladesh, I was curious about its drivers and needs. Here are some of my realizations from the conference.

Drivers and Opportunities
Road to political stability. The caretaker government that was put in place on Oct.29,2006 following a period of violence and volatility has since instituted several reforms, including reconstitution of the Elections Committee. The government also recently created the Better Business Forum to improve interaction between the business community and government and establish the need for public private partnerships (PPP) for infrastructure projects. The impending election and government emphasis on business should decrease risk and attract foreign investment.

Investment climate. Bangladesh has a favorable investment climate with the government allowing 100% FDI and joint ventures with the private and public sectors. The government has also instituted no ceiling on investment, tax holidays, duty-free imports of machinery, etc. for export-oriented industries, and multiple entry visas for foreign investors among other incentives.

Economic indicators. A 7% growth in GDP is further bolstered by a shift to new industries such as services, which now accounts for 50% of GDP, and an increased shift of the informal sector to the formal which results in value that was previously not being recognized now counting towards the national output. The Dhaka Stock Exchange is also up 66% this year, making it Asia’s top performer after China.

Isolation. With a foreign investment being 1% of GDP and only 20% of GDP being exported outside its borders, Bangladesh’s market is decoupled from the rest of the world and thus, relatively uncorrelated. The government is also promoting self-sufficiency by encouraging foreign investment in sectors that will help import substitution, such as high-tech. Foreign investors seeking to diversify their emerging markets footprint should find opportunity here, though the correlation will increase over time as Bangladesh continues to integrate with the rest of the world.

Favorable demographics. With a population median of 22.5 years in 2007 and 33% of Bangladeshis being under 15 years age, the next generation will dramatically increase the number of consumers and demand for consumer products. Arif Dowla, MD of ACI Ltd. (leading provider of pharmaceuticals, FMCG, and others) even commented that it could be difficult for businesses to keep up with the demand growth. Further, a growing cadre of tech savvy and entrepreneurial Bangladeshis, many educated abroad, are fueling new business growth and remittances from an increasing number of non-resident Bangladeshis are increasing stability.

Barriers and Needs
Lacking infrastructure. Repeatedly prioritized by several panelists as the leading area for reform, including electricity which is only available to 15% of villages (World Bank), roads, railroads, and telecommunications. The government also needs to go to market for investments in infrastructure through public private partnerships.

Marketing and branding. David Fernandez, head of emerging Asia economic and sovereign research at JP Morgan, made a point repeatedly that what Bangladesh needs (but is starting to build) is a credible story for investors. This includes developing a brand for the country and promoting opportunities to the global investment community. The country also lacks a credit rating as the government has yet to decide when the right time to establish that would be.

Fiscal reforms. Peter Berezin, senior global economist for Goldman Sachs, pointed out the need for greater fiscal reforms, underscoring the need for tax collection reforms. Unless the country is able to significantly increase its tax collection, through better tax administration or expanding the tax base, it will not be able to meet fast economic growth without increasing the fiscal deficit.